For many consumers, the busiest shopping season of the year has already started. According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), 84% of consumers plan to begin their holiday shopping by Thanksgiving. That means that right now, a significant percentage of this year’s holiday shoppers are already planning shopping lists, searching for deals, and even buying gifts, all before Black Friday deals have even hit.
The good news: there are still plenty of consumers shopping. The better news: we’re going to tell you how they plan to shop, in the first of a two-part series exploring the consumer trends that will define holiday shopping for the 2026 season.
The Broad Strokes
This holiday season is expected to be a competitive one. With concerns of inflation and other macroeconomic pressures ever present, consumers are expected to approach holiday shopping cautiously, researching and mapping every decision before they make it. According to Numerator, over 80% of consumers expect inflation to impact their shopping. That doesn’t mean spending will drop, though. Per the NRF, average individual spending is expected to exceed $890 on gifts and other seasonal items among the 91% of US consumers expected to celebrate the holidays.
How do they plan to celebrate? Here are the fast facts, according to Numerator.
Thanksgiving
- 59% plan to celebrate at home, with 41% planning to travel
- 52% will join immediate family
- Unsurprisingly, Food will be a top purchase for 82% of celebrators
- Alcohol will be a top purchase for 32% of celebrators
- 84% expect inflation will impact their shopping
Christmas and Hanukkah
- 70% plan to celebrate at home
- Gift-giving represents a top purchase priority for 69% of celebrators
- For 62%, decorations are a top purchase priority
- 88% expect inflation will impact their shopping.
The When
Holiday timelines are expanding. With 51% of shopping completed by early December, it’s vital to build a strategy that captures the attention of early shoppers while maintaining momentum as the season carries on.
To do that, you need to know which days are most important to target. While there are certainly obvious choices, like Black Friday and Cyber Monday, actual foot traffic data tells a slightly different story.
According to GroundTruth’s foot traffic data, the peak in-store shopping day in 2025 was actually Saturday, November 15, the weekend BEFORE Thanksgiving.
From there, the rest of the week didn’t only see shoppers turning out for Black Friday sales. The Tuesday before Thanksgiving represented a slowdown, but Black Friday 2025 saw consumers flooding stores with a total of 80.9 million measured visits. Finally, the Saturday before Christmas drove a massive 159 million in-store shoppers.
The Where
Holiday spend is consolidating around record-breaking digital milestones and clear brick-and-mortar winners. Last year, the top shopping destinations and the share of consumers that visited them were:
- Online – 55%
- Grocery Stores – 46%
- Department Stores – 44%
- Discount Stores – 42%
- Clothing Stores – 30%
- Electronic Stores – 17%
According to GroundTruth’s foot traffic data, the following categories drew the largest share of foot traffic:
Restaurants – 1B+ visits
- Driven entirely by local convenience and speed, short travel distance was the key to foot traffic.
- Big Winners: McDonald’s, Pizza Hut, Chick-fil-A
Department Stores – 811M visits
- The core physical hub for 44% of holiday shoppers. Traffic was heavily dominated by clear market leaders.
- Big Winners: Target, Walmart, Macy’s
Big Box – 126M visits
- Value seekers drove traffic, bulk-buying for the holidays.
- Big Winners: Sam’s Club, Costco, BJ’s
The What
While value-seeking behavior is high, holiday checklists still focus on traditional gifting categories, alongside a major shift toward digital gift cards and experience spending. Per the NRF, the most sought-after gift categories were:
- Gift Cards – 50%
- Clothing and Accessories – 46%
- Books and Media – 27%
- Beauty Items – 23%
- Electronics – 22%
- Home Decor – 20%
- Jewelry – 19%
Wrapping It Up
Though inflationary concerns will mark yet another holiday shopping season in 2026, there’s still ample opportunity for smart brands to grab their share of what will still be a massive shopping season.
How? Keep an eye out for Part 2 next week, in which we’ll walk through the targeting and media you’ll need to win big this holiday season.
Ready to get started now? Create your GroundTruth Ads Manager account today, and start exploring our platform (no minimum spend required). And, if you have any questions, don’t hesitate to contact us.
